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Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.Ezekiel Elliott has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, completing just 74.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 20th percentile.Ezekiel Elliott has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among RBs, averaging just 4.89 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 16th percentile.The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.50 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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