Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this week's contest (45.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (32.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Cowboys defensive ends profile as the best DE corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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