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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Evan Engram Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+460/-560).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +475 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +460.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 134.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average).
  • The New York Giants defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.7 per game) this year.
  • Evan Engram has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.0% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Broncos are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Evan Engram has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (19.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
  • Evan Engram's 26.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 48.4.
  • The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.8%) vs. tight ends this year (67.8%).

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