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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Evan Engram Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-730).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -730.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Broncos may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
  • The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in the NFL in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • After totaling 40.0 air yards per game last year, Evan Engram has undergone a big decline this year, currently boasting 19.0 per game.
  • Evan Engram's 24.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 48.4.
  • Evan Engram's 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 75.7% mark.
  • Evan Engram ranks in the 20th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.05 per game.

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