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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Evan Engram Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-660).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +430.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
  • The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a monstrous 59.5 per game on average).
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Evan Engram has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (19.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
  • Evan Engram's 26.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.4.
  • Evan Engram's 69.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial decline in his pass-catching talent over last year's 75.7% mark.

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