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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Evan Engram Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-435).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -580 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -435.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • Evan Engram has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.0% this year, which puts him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
  • The Broncos O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 8-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
  • Evan Engram has accrued far fewer air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
  • Evan Engram's 27.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 48.4.
  • Evan Engram's 68.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 75.7% figure.

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