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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Evan Engram Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-360).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -360.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 9-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
  • Evan Engram has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (18.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
  • Evan Engram's 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 48.4.
  • Evan Engram's 71.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a significant decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.7% mark.
  • The Raiders defense has allowed the 5th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.25 per game this year.

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