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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 135.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average).
  • The New York Giants defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.7 per game) this year.
  • In this week's game, Evan Engram is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.3 targets.
  • The Denver offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 8.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Evan Engram has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing game this season (13.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.0%).
  • Evan Engram's receiving skills have declined this season, compiling a measly 2.8 adjusted receptions vs 5.2 last season.
  • The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.8%) vs. tight ends this year (67.8%).

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