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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Broncos to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Broncos this year (a massive 59.6 per game on average).
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • The New York Jets safeties profile as the 6th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Broncos to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.4 per game) this year.
  • Evan Engram's 12.3% Target Share this season conveys an impressive regression in his passing game usage over last season's 25.0% mark.
  • Evan Engram's 2.0 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a significant diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 5.2 rate.

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