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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-190/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Broncos to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are anticipated by the projection model to call 68.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 59.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.
  • This week, Evan Engram is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Evan Engram has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this season (13.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.0%).
  • Evan Engram's pass-catching performance declined this season, compiling a measly 2.7 adjusted receptions vs 5.2 last season.
  • Evan Engram's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 75.7% to 66.9%.
  • This year, the fierce Jacksonville Jaguars defense has given up a mere 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

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