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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+116/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -131 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -148.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
  • The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a monstrous 59.5 per game on average).
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Evan Engram has been a less important option in his team's air attack this year (14.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (25.0%).
  • Evan Engram's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this season illustrates a material regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 5.2 figure.
  • Evan Engram's 69.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial decline in his pass-catching talent over last year's 75.7% mark.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's group of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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