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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect Evan Engram to accumulate 5.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs.

The Broncos O-line profiles as the best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Evan Engram has been one of the best pass-catching TEs last year, averaging a remarkable 5.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.

The Titans pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78%) vs. TEs last year (78.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Broncos, who are a massive favorite by 8 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 26.9 per game) last year.

The predictive model expects Evan Engram to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense in this week's contest (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (25.0% in games he has played).

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