Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:21 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+152/-202).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -149 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -202.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 8.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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