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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • In this week's game, Evan Engram is expected by the model to finish in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.
  • The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • Evan Engram has been a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack this season (14.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.0%).
  • After accumulating 40.0 air yards per game last year, Evan Engram has been a disappointment this year, currently boasting 20.0 per game.
  • Evan Engram has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).
  • Evan Engram's 67.3% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies an impressive reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 75.7% figure.

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