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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect Evan Engram to accumulate 5.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Evan Engram has accrued a monstrous 40.0 air yards per game last year: 91st percentile among tight ends.

The Broncos O-line profiles as the best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

With a fantastic 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (83rd percentile) last year, Evan Engram stands as one of the top pass-catching TEs in football.

The Titans pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78%) vs. TEs last year (78.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Broncos, who are a massive favorite by 8 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 26.9 per game) last year.

The predictive model expects Evan Engram to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense in this week's contest (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (25.0% in games he has played).

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