Eric Saubert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Eric Saubert

NFL · Player Props

Eric Saubert

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Eric Saubert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Eric Saubert has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (3.0 per game).
Eric Saubert's 13.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 4.0.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Eric Saubert has been among the weakest pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a mere 11.0 yards per game while ranking in the 16th percentile among TEs.
Eric Saubert's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.5% to 33.4%.

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