Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Equanimeous St. Brown to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this week (15.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.1% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (165.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed poor efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, giving up 9.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.