Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+429/-967).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -952 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -967.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Equanimeous St. Brown to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (21.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.2% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
Equanimeous St. Brown's 12.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the league: 19th percentile for wide receivers.