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Emari Demercado

Emari Demercado Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans

Emari Demercado Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

Emari Demercado has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Emari Demercado has put up a massive 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among running backs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league vs. the Titans defense since the start of last season (73.5% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Cardinals, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.

The leading projections forecast the Cardinals as the 9th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This year, the feeble Titans run defense has given up a whopping 1.75 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the highest rate in football.

The Titans safeties profile as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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