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Elijah Moore

Elijah Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Elijah Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-630).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +630 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +510.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • This year, the feeble Chiefs defense has been gouged for a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • With a middling 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, Elijah Moore places among the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in the league.
  • Elijah Moore has put up far fewer air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (55.0 per game).

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