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Elijah Moore

Elijah Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Elijah Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+840/-1300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1100 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +840.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).
  • Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-fewest TDs in the league (0.50 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 8-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • With a meager 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, Elijah Moore places as one of the wideouts with the highest volume near the end zone in football.
  • After accruing 55.0 air yards per game last year, Elijah Moore has produced significantly fewer this year, currently boasting 6.0 per game.

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