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Elijah Moore

Elijah Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Elijah Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+740/-1050).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1050.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (70.0%).
  • When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
  • Elijah Moore, who has received 5.6% of his team's carries near the end zone this year (97th percentile), is in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Bills red zone running game.

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