Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Elijah Moore has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (75.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (65.5%).

Favors Under

Elijah Moore has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (48.0 per game) than he did last season (83.0 per game).
The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Elijah Moore has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (34.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
Elijah Moore's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling a measly 2.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.81 rate last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. WRs this year, allowing 7.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.

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