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Elijah Moore

Elijah Moore Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Elijah Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+437/-997).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -897 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -997.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.

The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 6th-most passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 1.00 per game this year.

The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Elijah Moore has compiled far fewer air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (83.0 per game).

Elijah Moore's 28.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.5.

Elijah Moore has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 59.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 13th percentile among wideouts

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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