Eli Mitchell Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Eli Mitchell

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Eli Mitchell Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+132/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -153 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Elijah Mitchell has run for 0.36 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (31.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.0% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.