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Dyami Brown

Dyami Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dyami Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+485/-580).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -560 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -580.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average).

Dyami Brown's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 17.9.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Jaguars profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 7th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased run volume.

The projections expect Dyami Brown to be much less involved in his offense's air attack near the goal line in this week's contest (13.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.8% in games he has played).

Dyami Brown's 71.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a material decrease in his receiving skills over last year's 78.0% figure.

This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded a measly 0.75 passing TDs per game to opposing WRs: the 9th-lowest rate in football.

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