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Dyami Brown

Dyami Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Dyami Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+395/-650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -610 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -650.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.

The projections expect Dyami Brown to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the end zone in this contest (14.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.6% in games he has played).

The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Dyami Brown's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 78.0% to 72.7%.

Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up a meager 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the lowest rate in the league.

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