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Dyami Brown

Dyami Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Dyami Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-630).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -610 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -630.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in football (63.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Jaguars.
  • The Jaguars have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Dyami Brown has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).
  • Dyami Brown's 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 17.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The model projects Dyami Brown to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line in this contest (21.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.7% in games he has played).
  • Dyami Brown's 55.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a remarkable reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 78.0% figure.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest level in the league versus the Houston Texans defense this year (62.9% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Texans defense has given up the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.50 per game this year.

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