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Dyami Brown

Dyami Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Dyami Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

The Bengals defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (34.0 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jaguars are anticipated by the model to call only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars since the start of last season (a measly 54.7 per game on average).

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.1%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).

The Bengals safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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