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Dyami Brown

Dyami Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers

Dyami Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -220.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.

The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Dyami Brown has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in an outstanding 78.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 82nd percentile among WRs.

Last year, the weak Carolina Panthers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are projected by the projection model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 11th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL last year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Panthers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.9 per game) last year.

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