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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears

Durham Smythe Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+980/-4100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1400 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +980.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are forecasted by the model to run 67.9 total plays in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week.

The 9th-most plays in the league have been called by the Chicago Bears since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

The Raiders defense has been gouged for the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.45 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 59.6% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least pass-focused team in football has been the Chicago Bears.

With a measly 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, Durham Smythe places as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.

Durham Smythe has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a measly 53.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 11th percentile.

With a terrible rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Durham Smythe has been among the worst receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to TEs last year.

The Raiders linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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