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Durham Smythe Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1800/-2000).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2000.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Bears to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.The Bears have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (36.1 per game) this year.The Bears offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.Durham Smythe's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 53.6% to 56.8%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 54.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.3% red zone run rate.Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.Durham Smythe has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which places him in the 1st percentile among tight ends.Durham Smythe has accumulated a meager 1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile among TEs.
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