Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Durham Smythe's 71.9% Route% this year represents a material improvement in his pass game volume over last year's 27.1% rate.
Durham Smythe's 2.3 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a meaningful growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 1.2 rate.
Durham Smythe profiles as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, completing a fantastic 77.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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