Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 17, 2022 9:46 PM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 66.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

Durham Smythe's 5.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 14.1.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Durham Smythe's play as a receiver has diminished this season, notching a measly 1.1 yards per game vs 2.3 last season.
Durham Smythe's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 86.9% to 82.2%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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