Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Durham Smythe to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this week (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.9% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the league (52.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown bad efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, surrendering 8.06 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
Durham Smythe's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.3% to 71.1%.

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