Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.23 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Durham Smythe has been among the worst pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a mere 11.0 yards per game while checking in at the 13th percentile among TEs.

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