Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-117/-117).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
Durham Smythe has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, catching an impressive 85.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Durham Smythe has been among the most effective receivers in football among TEs, averaging a stellar 9.30 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 36.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.