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Drew Sample

Drew Sample Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Drew Sample Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1900/-8500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -6000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -8500.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals may throw the ball less this week (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Flacco.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Bengals being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 68.5% of their opportunities: the highest rate on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.4% red zone pass rate.

The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (42.0 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Bengals have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 48.8 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.

Drew Sample has notched a puny 1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 22nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

In regards to pass protection (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.

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