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Drew Sample

Drew Sample Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

Drew Sample Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1800/-10000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -4500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -10000.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Bengals being a big -10-point underdog in this game.

The projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.

Drew Sample is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in an outstanding 92.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (just 48.2 per game on average).

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Detroit Lions, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.8 per game) this year.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season (66.8% Adjusted Completion%).

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