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Drew Sample

Drew Sample Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

Drew Sample Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1100/-4200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -4200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals will be rolling out backup QB Jake Browning in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Bengals are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Drew Sample has notched a measly 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 20th percentile among tight ends.

In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a paltry 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.

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