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Drew Lock TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-260/+190).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -260.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Giants will be forced to start backup QB Drew Lock in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.The Giants are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.The leading projections forecast the Giants to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The New York Giants have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Giants are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.Drew Lock's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 63.9% to 51.6%.With a very bad rate of just 0.00 per game (1st percentile), Drew Lock places among the worst touchdown passers in the NFL this year.As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's safety corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.
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