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Drew Lock

Drew Lock Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants

Drew Lock Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 199.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 190.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 199.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Giants will be forced to start backup QB Drew Lock in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Giants are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Giants to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The New York Giants have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Giants are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.

The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Drew Lock's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 63.9% to 51.6%.

Drew Lock's throwing effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 4.64 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.09 rate last season.

This year, the tough Falcons defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing teams: a meager 4.2 YAC.

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