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Drake Maye

Drake Maye Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Drake Maye Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+365/-400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -395 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -400.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (59.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.
  • The Patriots offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The opposing side have rushed for the 3rd-fewest TDs in football (0.43 per game) versus the Browns defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.48 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in football against the Browns defense this year (68.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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