My Account Log Out
 
 
Drake Maye

Drake Maye Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Drake Maye Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+340/-400).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +400 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +340.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New England Patriots.
  • The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in football against the Bills defense since the start of last season (72.5% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • This year, the shaky Buffalo Bills run defense has allowed a staggering 1.25 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's group of LBs has been awful this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™