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Drake Maye

Drake Maye TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Drake Maye TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (59.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.
  • The Patriots offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Browns defense has been gouged for the 10th-most TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.71 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.48 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in football against the Browns defense this year (68.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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