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Drake Maye

Drake Maye TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Drake Maye TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (60.1% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.
  • When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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