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Drake Maye

Drake Maye TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Drake Maye TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+124/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +124.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (60.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New England Patriots.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The Miami cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given the game dynamics and play styles of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 27.12 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo out of all the games this week.
  • The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the 8th-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.28 per game since the start of last season.

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