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Drake Maye

Drake Maye TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Drake Maye TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • The New England O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
  • This year, the weak New York Jets defense has been gouged for a monstrous 1.80 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the league.
  • The New York Jets linebackers project as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 13 points.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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