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Drake Maye

Drake Maye TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Drake Maye TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • The Buffalo cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • This year, the imposing Bills defense has yielded a mere 66.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in football.
  • This year, the tough Buffalo Bills defense has conceded a puny 1.23 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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