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Drake Maye

Drake Maye TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Drake Maye TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-172/+152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -178 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -172.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • The New York Jets defense has yielded the 8th-most passing TDs in football: 1.89 per game this year.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, profiling as the 9th-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a huge 12.5-point favorite this week.
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year.

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